While most New Zealanders place their bets at the TAB on the weekend races, a growing number of tech-savvy Kiwis are turning to a different kind of wagering platform—one that lets them bet on everything from papal elections to whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025.
Welcome to Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market that’s exploded from obscurity to an $8 billion valuation, where the only limit to what you can bet on is your imagination—and sometimes, good taste.
From Election Night to Every Night
Polymarket burst into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 US presidential election, when it correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory while traditional polls showed a toss-up race. The platform saw over $3.3 billion wagered on that single contest, with one French trader reportedly pocketing $85 million from his Trump bets. 
But elections are just the tip of the iceberg. Today, Polymarket users are betting on Fed interest rate decisions, Taylor Swift’s potential pregnancy, whether China will invade Taiwan, and even the second coming of Christ. Yes, really.
How It Works: Betting Meets Blockchain
Unlike traditional bookmakers, Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain using USDC cryptocurrency. Users buy “shares” in yes-or-no outcomes, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $1.00. If a share trades at $0.72, the market collectively believes there’s a 72% chance that outcome will occur.
When the event resolves, correct predictions pay out $1.00 per share. Wrong bets? Worth nothing. The platform charges no fees, making money instead through the spread between buy and sell prices.
For Kiwis used to straightforward sports betting, the learning curve can be steep. You’ll need a crypto wallet, some USDC stablecoin, and a willingness to navigate blockchain transactions. But advocates say the payoff is access to markets you simply can’t find anywhere else.
The Weird, The Wild, and The Wonderful
What sets Polymarket apart is the sheer variety of markets—some insightful, others bizarre, and a few that push ethical boundaries.
The Geopolitical: Will there be a nuclear detonation in 2025? Will Israel launch another ground offensive? These markets aggregate global sentiment on volatile situations, with traders putting real money behind their geopolitical analyses.
The Celebrity Circus: Markets tracking what words Trump will say in speeches have become oddly popular. One trader described betting on whether he’d say “China” or “Make America Great Again” as “quite stupid, but actually quite active.”
The Spiritual: Perhaps the strangest market asks whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025. With over $500,000 in volume, some traders are betting “yes”—not out of religious conviction, but because they believe other bettors will eventually want to free up their locked capital and buy out the “yes” shares at a premium. It’s a bet on market psychology rather than divine intervention.
The Controversial: Markets on public figures’ health or potential assassination have drawn fierce criticism. When Trump wasn’t seen publicly over one Labor Day weekend, betting volumes spiked on whether JD Vance would take office by year’s end. Critics call these “assassination markets”; defenders say they’re simply aggregating information about political stability.
The Nobel Prize Scandal
The platform’s biggest controversy erupted in October 2025 when Norwegian authorities launched an investigation after suspicious betting patterns on the Nobel Peace Prize winner. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado’s odds jumped from 3.6% to over 70% in just hours before the official announcement, driven by newly created accounts.
One trader using the handle “dirtycup” placed a $70,000 bet on Machado despite having opened the account just weeks earlier. Three accounts collectively earned around $90,000, prompting Norwegian officials to investigate potential espionage and information leaks from the Nobel Committee.
“We take this very seriously,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute. “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor.”
The incident highlights a crucial difference between Polymarket and traditional financial markets: insider trading isn’t explicitly prohibited on the platform. It operates offshore and falls outside most insider-trading regulations.
The Kiwi Angle
While Polymarket is currently blocked in several countries including the US (despite a recent regulatory breakthrough), Australia, and parts of Europe, New Zealanders can still access the platform. However, finding self-identified Kiwi traders publicly discussing their Polymarket activities is challenging—perhaps wisely so, given the regulatory grey areas.
Interestingly, New Zealand has its own connection to the prediction market world: PredictIt, one of Polymarket’s competitors, is owned by a company partnered with Victoria University of Wellington. That platform operated for years in the US as an academic research project before regulatory battles forced changes to its model.
New Zealand economist Eric Crampton, Chief Economist at The New Zealand Initiative, has been a vocal proponent of prediction markets. Following Trump’s election victory—partly predicted by a French trader on Polymarket—Crampton appeared on Radio New Zealand to explain how these markets work and why they often outperform traditional polling.
Is It Worth It?
For Kiwis considering diving into Polymarket, the platform offers several advantages: no fees, 24/7 trading, and markets on virtually any topic imaginable. The blockchain foundation promises transparency, with all transactions visible on-chain.
But there are significant downsides too. The crypto requirement creates a barrier to entry. Market resolution disputes are decided by UMA token holders, which has led to controversial outcomes. And the platform’s hands-off approach to market creation has resulted in ethically questionable bets.
Most importantly, regulatory uncertainty looms large. Countries are rapidly updating gambling laws to address crypto-based prediction markets, and New Zealand could follow suit. Already, Switzerland, France, Poland, Singapore, and Belgium have blocked access to Polymarket.
The Truth Machine or Just Gambling?
Polymarket’s supporters call it a “truth machine”—a platform that financially incentivizes accurate predictions and cuts through media bias and polling noise. During the 2024 election, the platform’s odds proved more accurate than most pollsters, lending credence to this view.
Sceptics see it as just another form of gambling, dressed up in blockchain technology and intellectual pretensions. They worry about market manipulation, insider trading, and the ethical implications of betting on events like political assassinations or natural disasters.
For the Kiwis making money on the platform, the truth probably lies somewhere in between. It’s part gambling, part forecasting, and part financial experiment—a new frontier where crypto meets current events, and where the only certainty is uncertainty itself.
Whether you think Polymarket represents the future of information aggregation or just another crypto-fuelled speculation bubble may depend on whether you’re betting “yes” or “no.” And increasingly, there’s a market for that too.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading and prediction markets carry significant risks, including the total loss of invested capital. Polymarket may not be legal in all jurisdictions. Readers should consult with financial and legal professionals before participating in crypto-based betting platforms.
